STOCK FRACTALS

Defining The   "Hidden Fractal Order"   Within The Financial Markets

Updated and Posted: 

 Tuesday, November 15th 5:43 am

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Monitored Stock Fractal Hedge Fund

$100,000.00 Initial Investment

 

 

date time code qty symbol type price commis net r desc asset file notes
08/25/05   BUY 1,000 SIMG S 9.31 14.95     SIMG Common SIMG.STK STOP 8.80
09/01/05   SELL 1,000 SIMG S 10.15 14.95 PROFIT   SIMG COMMON SIMG.STK CLOSE
09/02/05   SELL 200 RIMM S 80.20 14.95     RIMM COMMON RIMM.STK STOP 81.00
09/06/05   SELL 200 GM S 33.12 14.95     GM COMMON GM.STK STOP 34.40
09/13/05   BUY 200 RIMM S 81.00 14.95 LOSS   RIMM COMMON RIMM.STK STOPPED
09/21/05   BUY 200 GM S 30.75 14.95 PROFIT   GM COMMON GM.STK Cover
09/22/05   BUY 1,000 SIMG S 9.08 14.95     SIMM COMMON SIM.STK 8.75 STOP
09/22/05   BUY 1,000 TASR S 7.39 14.95     TASR COMMON TASR.STK 6.50 STOP
09/26/05   SELL 1,000 SIMG   9.46 14.95 PROFIT   SIMG COMMON SIMG.STK CLOSE
09/26/05   SELL 1,000 TASR   7.39 14.95 EVEN   TASR COMMON TASR.STK CLOSE
                         

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Tuesday, November 15th 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, November 10th

 

 Wednesday, November 9th

 

 

 

Tuesday, November 8th 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, November 7th

 

Last Week was a fractal inspired rally ..

This week the  markets will mildly correct ......... to form another rally base.

We have to wait and see the "Degree" and Amplitude" of the decline.

When a Similarity appears with or with a bar confirmation --- this will be the trigger.

 

CME up again 2 points this morning

Another Google here ?

Notice the bar bottom on the chart !

I don't see a top yet on the stock

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, November 4th 

CME Update :   2:59 pm

Up 7 points to 381

 

 

 

CME continues its rally today

 

 

 

 

 

Maybe ?

 

 

 

Thursday, November 3rd

12:56 pm Update on CME

 

 

 

 

 

 Wednesday, November 2nd

 

2:59 pm Update ... CME breaks out !

 

 

 

2:34 pm update :  CME went from 369 to currently 373 !

Wow

 

Goog has a possible 5 bar 2 hr top near 381

 

Waiting for a confirmation  ...... for a "bottom"

Notice the bottom at 3:00 pm yesterday

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, October 19th

Thursday, October 13th

 

 

The portfolio is far ahead of the SPX  from its inception. The S&P is down over 5 % since September.

Cash is King for the moment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

Tuesday, October 11th

 

RHAT broke down today - just as the fractal  suggested.

GM also is on target to get to the 24 area.

GOOG broke decisively below its 20 day ma today and should test the 50 day
ma (currently @298) before earnings announcement next week Thursday.

Someone on the Elliottwave forum suggested a minor Bradley date of 10-17 as
a possible turn date of some sort.  Could be a low of some kind -  also
corresponds with options expiration week - which could give the market some
fuel for a rally.

 

 

Monday, October 10th

Friday, October 7th

IOTN surges ahead

 

 

 

Gary Lammert

 

Today's Entry into the Laboratory Notebook Investigating the Possibility That
Equity Valuation Fractal Evolution Precisely Represents Macroeconomic Activity.


Five hundred billion, 500,000,000,000. That's approximately
how much the Wilshire lost in two and one half days of trading before
Thursday's late growth fractal. The current ideal fractal devolution
involves about 66 more trading days to a low. At this pace that would
result in a negative valuation for the Wilshire - and just as
negative numbers do not exist in nature, a negative valuation,
likewise, will not occur for the Wilshire. Fractally, expect extreme
swings of up and down valuations. Those thinking of making money during
this macroeconomic catastrophe should think again. A wise government
would tax all windfall profits by 90 percent. No one should get rich
in this scenario. In the future wise governments will devise monetary
policy, interest rates, and and lending regulations to control
speculation in assets and their subsequent overvaluation.

The more specific the fractal prediction, the greater probability for
error. That the complex macroeconomic system grows and decays and
otherwise evolves according to a mathematical set of fractal patterns
appears readily observable retrospectively to anyone who cares to
studiously review the data in prior EF postings. The real task is
predicting the future pattern with a reasonable degree of clarity.
That would solidly place fractal analysis as having the properties of
a real science.

Prior postings in the Economic Fractalist show an evolution of
predictions. There are errors. These postings are like entries in an
experimental lab notebook. They will remain unaltered, available for
review. The incorrect estimations show the evolution of ongoing
fractal interpretation. As the fractal valuations evolve and present
new data (and the older patterns become more and more resounding in
their ideal quantum nature), so do the interpretations of the future
valuations evolve, gaining greater clarity.

The current interpretation as of 6 October 2005 of an ideal fractal
decay evolution for the Wilshire is as follows:

The peak secondary to March 2000 occurred on 3 August 2005. This
secondary peak occurs 147 years after the completion in 1858 of the
first major US economic grand fractal lasting about 70 years. The
second grand fractal is (will probably be)composed of two 74 year
subfractals, the first ending in 1932 and the second predicted to end
in 2006. The Wilshire is an extension of earlier exchange stock
valuation activity dating to the 18th century.

The top monthly Wilshire fractal including the March 2000 top was
27-28 months in length.
The expected 2.5x end of the fractal would be 67-70 months in length.

This agrees with the ideal end of a weekly fractal sequence
x,2.5x/2x/1.5x with an averaged base of 30 weeks (8 taken from a
declining fractal and 23 taken from a flat base; one week is
subtracted for double counting).

The ideal weekly sequence is; 30/75/60/45.

The Wilshire is currently on week 2 of the 45 week decay fractal.

The third growth fractal above composed of about 60 weeks is composed
of a 11/28/22 weeks or 59 weeks(subtract 2 for double counting). The
1.5x decay fractal of this sequence would be 18 weeks.

The daily count of the above fractal is 51-52/129-130/103-104 (x/2.5x/2x).
Remembering the integrative effect that fractals represent, decay
begins in top portion of the third subfractal or in the 103-104 day
period. Likewise by this reasoning the 103rd to104th day is not
expected to be 'the' final secondary high because of integrative
averaging and ongoing decay.

The number of days to an expected ideal low would be 1.5 times 51-52
or about 76-77.
As of 6 October 2005 the Wilshire is about day 10 of that decay
period. Thus after this week ends there will be about 65 more tradings
to a low. With trading holidays that would represent about 14 more
weeks.

As mentioned in prior postings the ideal quantum decay is x/2.5x/2.5x.
This was the sequence in 1929 with a base of 11 - 11/27/27. Other
quantum decay fractals are possible such as x/2.5x/x,1.5x,1.6x,and 2x,
but the x/2.5x/2.5x fractal is the most likely. the interpretation of
future fractal evolution are very much like the solving of a simple
mathematical puzzle.

The best solution using the above information is a decay fractal of
nearly 21 days. The second two decay fractals are each composed of 52.
August 3 falls into the middle subfractal of 11 days of a 5/11/7 day
sequence(subtract 2 days for double counting.

Notice a slope taken at the low of the first and last day of this
nearly 21 day fractal contains all the lows of the fractal.

The second fractal sequence is 9/19/day 11 of 26-27 days for a total
of 52-53 days.

The third decay fractal would be composed of about 52 days.

The 30 or so remaining weeks (45 minus 15) after the the predicted
January 2006 low might be composed of a 5/12/10/7 inverted 'u'
shaped fractal that would serve as the beginning base for the next
growth sequence. My estimation will be that the low will be
unimaginable.


Take this estimation like a notation in an experimental lab notebook.
It's today's best thought. It is today's best working fractal hypothesis.
Better thoughts with more ongoing data points and an ongoing review
of older information will likely occur in the following days. This is not
trading advice.

 

 

 

 Thursday, October 6th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, October 5th

 

Gary Lammert


Nonlinearity Ahead - 15 Weeks to a Significant Low

The end of the major three phase fractal growth progression since
2002-3 is near; further lateral valuation growth of up to 3-6 days is
possible. The 3 August 2005 Wilshire, will, with great probability,
not be exceeded. But there is a possibility for the Nikkei, FTSE, CAC
and DAX to retest and exceed the previous week's highs.

The maximal daily final daily fractal pattern for the NIKKEI is on day
38 of a maximal 17-18/43/38 of 43 pattern (x/2.5x/2.5x maximal
pattern).

The Wilshire, FTSE, CAC, and DAX are on day 8 of a 5-6/14/8 of 10-14
day pattern. It is possible that these markets could break down before
the maximal theoretical length of their growth periods (see below), but
during the
last three years all of the saturation third fractal growth patterns
have gone to their full 2x-2.5x length for the major equity indices.
This pattern is expected to continue.

The long term fractal pattern since October of 1998 on a monthly basis
will be completed this month: x/2.5x/2.5x or 15/37/37(October 2005 is
month 37). On a weekly basis this is 59/157/156 of 157 weeks. Since
fractal patterns represent saturation growth and decay curves,
hypothetically, had the fed maintained, until present, a fed fund rate
of 1 percent, the Wilshire's valuation may have been substantial
higher than it is now- with a parabolic growth blow-off akin to that
now occurring in the NIKKEI. Theoretical, the timing of the saturation
peak would be, nevertheless, nearly unchanged.


Fractal growth has followed a remarkable quantum x/2.5x/2x time unit
pattern for the last 36-38 months despite a series of fed increases in
fed funds interest rates. a summary review of this growth is found
below:

Using the Wilshire: TMWX

First growth fractal (x): 22 weeks 103 days
(12 Mar 2003 -6 August 2003)
Second growth fractal (2.5x) 54-5 weeks 258 days (6 August
2003 - 13 August2004)

It may well be that these two fractals represent the composition of
the 'true' second growth fractal with an averaged calculated true
first growth fractal of 30 weeks or 144 days. A look at the Wilshire
shows a positive growth pattern prior to March 12, 2003 of 23 weeks.
It is possible that 7 additional weeks of the preceding declining
fractal of 12 weeks was averaged into that real first growth fractal.
Because fractals are an integrative process of both the preceding
decay and subsequent growth, this averaging is intuitively
reasonable.

The integrated growth pattern would be:

First fractal (averaged) (x) 30 weeks 144 days
Second fractal (2.5x) 75 weeks 360 days

The ideal time of the third fractal would be 2x or 288 days

The third fractal beginning in August 2004:

51-52/130/109 of a 104-130 maximum growth range or
51-52/130/104/ day 5 of a 78 day decay fractal

Friday 30 September was day 288-9 of an ideal 288 third fractal 2x pattern.

The idealized decay pattern using a 51-21 day base is about 77-78 days.
There are about 70 days left for a primary low. Interestingly this
agrees with an even longer integrated averaged fractal sequence dating
from October 1998 of a first fractal that includes fifty percent of a
preceding decaying weekly fractal of 5 weeks duration:

first weekly fractal 109.5 weeks
second fractal 259 of 275 weeks with about 16 weeks left to a low.

By using day 288 as the ideal third fractal top, using 72 days (from
September 30) to an expected low and 72 days as an expected low with
the 52/130/104/day 5 of 78 to an expected low, the first decay base
most likely started 31 August 2005. The initial decay fractal base
was 16 days. This ideally would be followed by second and third decay
fractals of 40 days for a total of 79 trading days from 22 September
2005. This is in exact agreement to a day of the major 144/360/288/72
daily fractal sequence and the final third fractal 52/130/104/78 day
sequence both which end within one day of each other.

 

 

 

Tuesday, October 4th

 

Monday October 3rd

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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